A Year After the Elections: Czech Opposition Still Hasn't Closed the Gap with Babiš's ANO in the Polls

A year after the Czech parliamentary elections, opposition parties have still failed to narrow the massive lead held by Andrej Babiš's ANO movement in voter preference polls. This was discussed in the latest episode of the Dobrovský&Šídlo podcast, recorded on Monday, September 14, before a live audience at Prague's La Fabrika club.

According to the latest opinion polls, ANO continues to hold steady at around 30 percent support. Notably, even the combined potential result of the two main opposition forces — ODS and STAN — still falls short of Babiš's movement, even though STAN has overtaken ODS in several recent surveys.

"If not now, then when should the opposition be gaining ground? Mortgages aren't getting any cheaper — quite the opposite — diesel costs 50 crowns a liter, and the budget deficit is nearing 400 billion crowns. Yet none of this seems to move the poll numbers at all," notes journalist Jindřich Šídlo. According to him, ANO voters are willing to put up with all of this — perhaps because they trust their leader and fear that a change of government would bring even greater chaos, adds journalist Jan Dobrovský.

ODS Loses Its Grip on the Economic Agenda

For ODS — the largest opposition party by number of seats — an important test is looming: Prague's municipal elections. The party needs more than just a win; it needs a result starting with the digit "three," otherwise it will struggle to expand its electoral base ahead of the 2029 parliamentary elections.

"ODS deputy chairman Tomáš Portlík understands this perfectly well, and he bears personal responsibility for it. He's unlikely to be pleased: polls give the party a maximum of 24 percent in Prague, and that's simply too little," says Šídlo.

The party's situation is further complicated by an internal reshuffle: this winter, for the first time in 12 years, ODS changed its leader — Petr Fiala was replaced as chairman by Martin Kupka — but, judging by the polls, this change hasn't yet had any real effect. "ODS's problem runs deeper. The party has lost its status as the go-to expert on the economy — which used to be its main trump card. Who in ODS today is the bearer of a coherent economic message? With all due respect, it's certainly not Jan Skopeček," argues Dobrovský.

Šídlo compares Kupka's arrival to a forced coaching change at a football club: the old coach was let go, but there was no one to replace him except a former assistant. According to him, no real alternative emerged at the party congress — the only rival candidate was Radim Ivan, deputy head of the Ostrava-Jih district, who never stood a real chance.

The podcast hosts also discuss what explains the popularity of STAN — a party that traditionally polls better than it actually performs in real elections — why ANO has thrown its weight behind the Senate race with new Christian Democrat leader Jan Grolich in the Vyškov constituency, and whether an ODS-ANO alliance at the citywide level in Prague could happen for the first time in history.

Source: seznamzpravy.cz