An abnormally powerful El Niño could affect Europe's weather around the turn of 2026–2027

Temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region — a key zone for monitoring conditions in the Pacific Ocean — had already reached around +2°C by the end of summer, a sign of a very strong event sometimes informally dubbed a "Super El Niño." According to meteorologists, such high readings at this time of year are considered extremely unusual.

The record could fall by winter

Forecasts suggest El Niño will keep strengthening. At its peak, toward the end of the year, the temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region could reach +3°C — meaning the current event could become the strongest ever recorded.

Around the turn of 2026 and 2027, a powerful El Niño could become one of the main factors shaping weather patterns around the world. The most noticeable effects are expected in parts of the Americas, Australia, Asia and Africa, where both destructive flooding and severe droughts are possible.

What about Europe?

El Niño's influence on Europe is usually far weaker. However, according to Germany's national weather service, DWD, this year certain effects linked to the phenomenon's impact on global atmospheric circulation could also be felt on the European continent.

During El Niño, thunderstorm activity over the central and eastern tropical Pacific shifts dramatically, and condensation releases enormous amounts of latent heat into the atmosphere. This, in turn, reshapes large-scale circulation patterns, whose influence can extend all the way to higher latitudes.

The first changes are already expected this autumn

The stronger the El Niño, the more pronounced the response of global atmospheric circulation is likely to be. However, its effect on Europe is not straightforward and depends on many additional factors. Still, given how rapidly the current event is intensifying, the odds are rising that its influence will be felt here as well.

Although El Niño is linked to a temporary rise in global temperatures, its effect on summer weather and heatwaves in Europe is minimal. The clearest signs of its impact on the continent typically appear in autumn and winter.

According to the Severe Weather Europe portal, some features typical of past El Niño episodes are already showing up in seasonal model forecasts. In particular, low-pressure systems are forming more frequently over the North Atlantic, helping to draw warmer, moister oceanic air into Europe.

Around Prague, based on reporting by novinky.cz