Czechia Facing Shortage of Half a Million Workers by 2045

Czechia is set to face a shortage of nearly 500,000 workers by 2045, according to projections from the consulting group Moore Czech Republic. The cause lies in the collision of two demographic waves: the small generations born after 2000 are entering the labour market just as the large generations of the 1970s are retiring en masse.

"Right now, people born in the sixties are retiring. But in a few years it will be the turn of the massive generations of the seventies, when as many as 194,000 children were born each year. Meanwhile, the generations entering the labour market number just 90,000 to 120,000 people — and that figure keeps shrinking," explained Radovan Hauk, partner at Moore Czech Republic.

The Balance Will Break After 2033

According to analysts' calculations, the number of workers entering and leaving the labour market will remain roughly equal until the early 2030s. But starting in 2033, the gap will begin to widen rapidly, and by 2043 the economy will lose 63,000 workers in a single year.

For businesses, the labour shortage means rising wage pressure and higher costs for recruiting and retaining staff. "A shortage of people in the labour market will mean not only greater pressure on wages for companies, but also higher costs tied to hiring and retention. In some professions, this could limit companies' capacity or extend delivery times," said Gabriela Theisig, director of the consulting firm Creative Dock.

The consequences for the state budget are even more serious: according to Moore Czech Republic's calculations, the losses will amount to roughly 3.3% of GDP annually. Lukáš Kovanda, chief economist at Trinity Bank, warns: "Without productivity growth, automation, later retirement, and managed migration, Czechia faces slower economic growth and a worsening ratio between those who pay taxes and contributions and those who draw pensions."

Salvation in Robotics and Older Workers

Paradoxically, the very technologies many fear — artificial intelligence and robotics — could help ease the problem. In a country with a shrinking workforce, technology is more likely to fill gaps left by missing workers than to put people out of work. "I see the greatest potential for artificial intelligence in replacing routine and administrative tasks, freeing people up for work that requires decision-making, creativity, or client interaction," says Lukáš Benzl, director of the Czech Association for Artificial Intelligence.

An ageing population will simultaneously increase pressure on healthcare and social services. According to forecasts from the Czech Statistical Office, the number of people over 80 will more than double, as noted earlier by Ladislav Dušek, director of the Institute of Health Information and Statistics. He said society will become noticeably older and will require significantly more long-term and nursing care.

Experts recommend combining several measures: extending the working lives of older people, attracting targeted labour migration, and investing more in retraining and boosting productivity. Without applying these approaches together, they say, the labour shortage cannot be offset.

Source: novinky.cz