The European Storm Forecast Experimental service, ESTOFEX, has issued a level 3 storm warning — the highest level — for part of southern Czechia. Severe thunderstorms bringing hail and gusty winds are expected on Friday evening, affecting not only Bavaria and northern Italy but also the border regions of South Bohemia.
According to ESTOFEX, storm cells will start forming during the day, mainly over southern Germany and northern Italy, where conditions will be favourable for powerful supercells capable of producing large hail and extremely strong wind gusts. Later, individual storms may merge into larger systems and track northeast, eventually covering much of Czech territory. Forecasters say the storms could retain a well-organised structure even once they reach Czechia, bringing strong winds and heavy downpours.
Besides southern Czechia, the highest warning level primarily applies to Bavaria and northern Italy. A level 2 warning is in effect across much of Czechia, while at least a level 1 warning applies to the rest of the country, with the exception of Silesia and eastern Moravia.
The Czech Hydrometeorological Institute raised its warning to level 2 for southern and part of western Czechia on Friday morning. Forecasters had already warned on Thursday evening that storms could be intense in places.
According to the institute, storms lined up in squall lines could produce wind gusts of around 20 m/s (70 km/h), and in southern and southwestern Czechia, most likely up to 25 m/s (90 km/h). Hail up to around 2 cm in diameter is possible, and larger in places — again mainly in the south and southwest of the country. Downpours with short bursts of around 30 mm of rain cannot be ruled out either.
The conditions favouring severe storms stem from a combination of very warm, moist air and pronounced wind shear, which allows storms to organise more effectively and encourages the formation of supercells and larger storm systems. Forecasters note that how the storms behave over Bavaria on Friday afternoon and evening — and in what form and strength they reach Czech territory — will be key to how the situation develops in Czechia.
Source: novinky.cz