Poll: ANO voters don't want Babiš to clash with Prague Castle

Three-quarters of Czechs believe the president and prime minister should act in harmony rather than compete with one another. That's according to a poll by the STEM/MARK agency, commissioned by the Seznam Zprávy newsroom and conducted among voters of the ANO movement.

Just a few months ago, Prime Minister Andrej Babiš was calling President Petr Pavel the "opposition leader" and a "puppet" of his team, describing the Castle's summer veto on loosening budget rules as an "activist and ill-considered" move. Relations between the Strakov Academy and Prague Castle grew especially tense amid the row over the failed appointment of Filip Turek as minister — a dispute that eventually spilled over into disagreements about the president's participation in the Ankara summit.

By late summer, however, Babiš had begun softening his tone, insisting there was no "battle" going on between him and the Castle. And earlier this week, the prime minister and the president met in person, agreeing to share information and coordinate their actions going forward.

What voters actually want

According to the survey, 75% of Czechs would prefer to see the president and prime minister on the same page rather than at odds. In effect, voters are signaling to Babiš that they have little appetite for a confrontation with Pavel.

"Given the current state of public opinion, this result might seem somewhat paradoxical. While Czech society remains ideologically divided, part of it simultaneously expects greater harmony between the president and the prime minister," notes STEM analyst Jan Buriánek. He adds that men tend to hold this view more strongly than women, and that the desire for accord stems mainly from a broader craving for stability.

Interestingly, it's voters of the ruling coalition who value agreement between the head of state and the prime minister the most — 78% of them, with 25% insisting on it unconditionally. Among opposition supporters, 75% back the idea of harmony, 19% of them unreservedly.

Political scientist Michal Pink of Masaryk University attributes this to the fact that the presidency inherently enjoys greater public goodwill. "Even people who couldn't imagine a particular individual in the Castle eventually come to respect him," he notes. In the expert's view, clashing with the president is politically costly even among those who didn't vote for him.

Who ANO voters would back in a presidential race

STEM also asked ANO supporters who they'd like to see as president. The clear favorite remains Babiš himself — 83% of the movement's voters say they'd vote for him, with 42% fully certain of their choice. In second and third place come the party's deputy chairs: Industry and Trade Minister Karel Havlíček would get 57% support, while Finance Minister Alena Schillerová would get 48%.

Former presidents also rank highly among ANO supporters: Miloš Zeman drew backing from 41% of respondents, Václav Klaus from 38%. According to Buriánek, these are figures ANO voters hold in high regard, trusting them far more than the population at large does.

Sitting President Pavel would get the nod from 21% of ANO voters, 7% of them firmly. By comparison, according to PAQ Research, around 11% of ANO supporters voted for Pavel in the 2023 election, while a recent NMS poll for Novinky found that a fifth of the movement's voters would now support his re-election.

Babiš himself has repeatedly denied any interest in the presidency. Political scientist Michal Pink adds that even if he did develop such ambitions, the road from the Strakov Academy to the Castle is exceedingly difficult: "It's incredibly hard, if not outright impossible. Austria, France, and Slovakia have all seen politicians get burned trying it. The premiership is a polarizing — forgive me — thankless role, whereas the presidency commands admiration." In his opinion, a direct showdown with Pavel could hand Babiš an even more painful defeat than the one he suffered in 2023.

The poll was conducted by STEM/MARK as part of its regular presidential tracking series. The fourth wave, with data collected between August 31 and September 7, surveyed 1,008 respondents representing the adult population of Czechia aged 18 and over.

Source: seznamzpravy.cz