Russia Loses 6,000 More Soldiers a Month at the Front Than It Can Recruit

According to Western sources cited by a British publication, Russia is losing roughly six thousand more troops at the front each month than it is able to recruit. Vladimir Putin's response to this shortfall has been to escalate strikes on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure and population.

"We estimate the gap between the casualties Russia is suffering and the number of people it's able to recruit at around six thousand a month. Putin's answer is escalation and strikes on civilian infrastructure and Ukrainian civilians," one of the Western sources said.

Strikes on Energy Infrastructure Ahead of Winter

According to this source, Russian forces have fired more than 360 missiles since the start of July, exploiting Kyiv's shortage of ballistic missile defence systems. "It's clear Moscow wants to break Ukrainian morale by destroying the country's energy infrastructure over the winter," the source added.

Western officials view Russia's current tactics as evidence that Putin has limited means of replenishing his enormous battlefield losses. A new wave of mobilisation could address the problem, but it poses a major political and economic risk for the Kremlin.

Lessons From the Previous Mobilisation

After the mobilisation announced in the autumn of 2022, roughly one million people left Russia — many of them highly skilled professionals — of whom fewer than half later returned. It also remains unclear whether the Russian army is even capable of absorbing hundreds of thousands of new conscripts, given it is already struggling with shortages of equipment and commanding officers.

Western officials believe Putin intends to keep waging a war of attrition, betting that foreign support for Ukraine will erode over time. One source suggested this is also the aim behind Russia's public threats of retaliatory strikes against Kyiv's allies — designed to create a "divided and more vulnerable Europe."

"It's important to remember there's nothing new here. Over the past several years, Russia has repeatedly resorted to threats of possible nuclear weapons use to intimidate us and pressure us into ending our support for Ukraine," another source noted.

Ukraine's Counterstrikes

Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to strike mainly at Russian facilities linked to the oil industry, creating fuel shortages inside Russia. At the same time, Kyiv regularly tells its allies that their assistance is insufficient, most often calling for increased supplies of strike missiles and air defence systems.

Around Prague, based on reporting by novinky.cz