El Niño Shatters Historical Records, Set to Strengthen Further Through Winter

Sea surface temperatures in the key El Niño 3.4 region of the central equatorial Pacific have reached 29.74°C — a full 3.05°C above the 1991–2020 long-term average. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), using its OISST monitoring system, this is the highest daily temperature anomaly ever recorded since observations began in 1981.

The previous record anomaly of +3.01°C was set back in 2015, at the peak of the last exceptionally strong El Niño event. The absolute record for the highest water temperature itself, however, has yet to be broken — it stands at 29.82°C, recorded on 17 November 2015. The current reading falls just 0.08 degrees short of that mark, and it appears to be only a matter of time before it's surpassed.

The Peak Is Still Ahead

What sets this El Niño apart is the sheer speed at which it has intensified. At the start of the year, the Pacific was still winding down from the previous cold La Niña phase. By spring, the warm El Niño phase had taken over, and by September, temperatures in the key monitoring region were already breaking historical records.

What's more, the current intensity is likely not the final word. Model forecasts suggest El Niño will continue strengthening, with its peak typically occurring in late autumn or early winter. Most scenarios point to this event eventually surpassing the strongest El Niño ever recorded.

Adding fuel to the fire is a massive pool of unusually warm water lurking beneath the surface of the equatorial Pacific. According to NOAA's latest forecast, subsurface temperature anomalies across a vast area exceed +10°C. This warm water is gradually rising toward the surface, which could further intensify the phenomenon.

Against the Backdrop of Global Warming

This exceptionally strong El Niño is unfolding amid long-term global warming and record-high ocean temperatures. Over the coming months, the phenomenon will significantly influence atmospheric circulation patterns, and with them, the distribution of temperatures and precipitation across different regions of the world. In some areas, this could raise the likelihood of extreme weather events.

Just how intense this El Niño ultimately becomes will only become clear in the months ahead. But it's already evident that this is an exceptionally powerful event — one that, against the backdrop of an unusually warm climate, is pushing beyond anything observed before.

El Niño is a climate phenomenon triggered by significant warming of the Pacific Ocean's surface waters near the equator, occurring when equatorial winds push warm water eastward instead of the usual westward direction. This disrupts normal atmospheric circulation patterns and triggers global weather consequences — heavy rains in some regions (such as South America) and drought in others (Australia, Southeast Asia). The phenomenon recurs roughly every 2 to 7 years.

Around Prague, based on reporting by novinky.cz