European Leaders Draw Parallels Between Russia and 1939

European politicians are increasingly warning that Russia's war against Ukraine could spill over into other countries. Polish President Karol Nawrocki compared the current situation to the events of 17 September 1939, when the Red Army invaded Poland under an arrangement with Nazi Germany — the so-called Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.

"Russia is waging a hybrid war against us, and this could be preparation for large-scale military aggression. We have already been through this once in our history," Nawrocki said. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated on Thursday: "We know they are preparing something. We must be ready for every scenario."

France and Britain React

French President Emmanuel Macron gathered party leaders, intelligence chiefs and military commanders for an emergency meeting at the Élysée Palace on Friday. According to him, "in recent weeks the threat facing Europeans and France — particularly the Russian hybrid threat — has intensified."

The British government has reportedly drawn up plans to stockpile long-term food and water supplies for the population in case of a Russian cyberattack or major infrastructure disruption. The UK is also planning cyberattack simulation exercises next year.

The Czech and Slovak Position

Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš acknowledged that his country, too, is facing a Russian hybrid war. "That is why our intelligence services are paying maximum attention to all risks linked to Russian intelligence activity against our country," he said.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said on Thursday: "The situation has never been as serious and tense in terms of the possibility of a pan-European military conflict as it is now." He had originally planned to attend a summit of leaders from the so-called Carpathian Eight in western Ukraine on Friday, but ultimately cancelled the trip — according to The Kyiv Independent, citing the Ukrainian presidential office, the reason was illness. He will be replaced by Interior Minister Matúš Šutaj Eštok, while the Czech Republic will be represented at the summit by Deputy Speaker of the Senate Jiří Drahoš.

At the same time, Fico stressed that he would not allow Slovakia to be drawn into a war under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which obliges NATO members to come to the aid of an attacked ally. "I don't want Slovakia to become party to any military conflict because of some Article 5," he told a group of high school students. Wall Street Journal journalist Yaroslav Trofimov reacted sarcastically on X, asking why, in that case, Slovak troops are stationed in the Baltic states.

A Return to "Dark Times"?

Several analysts and historians have spent recent months asking whether Europe is entering a phase resembling 1939 — on the brink of a large-scale war affecting multiple countries. British conservative historian Niall Ferguson, of Oxford and Harvard, argues: "If the West allows Ukraine to lose, Europe will slide back into a very dark period reminiscent of the late 1930s."

On the battlefield, things are not going well for Russia — the latest reports indicate Ukrainian forces are successfully counterattacking near Lyman in Donetsk region. Against this backdrop, Moscow is intensifying strikes on infrastructure: over the weekend, a Russian drone hit a train just two kilometres from the Polish border. In recent weeks, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands and Bulgaria have all reported explosions, including near defence plants and railway lines, and German authorities officially accused Russia in early September of a drone attack on Leipzig Airport.

Niklas Granholm, a major in the Swedish airborne forces who previously helped shape Sweden's defence and security strategy, cited Danish intelligence estimates suggesting that if the war in Ukraine ends, Russia would accelerate arms production and redirect resources toward threatening the Baltic states within six months to three years after the fighting stops. Still, he considers comparisons to 1939 exaggerated: "I would still call the 1930s a harsher time. Germany wanted to be a great power and to take revenge for the outcome of World War I. The situation now is different — Europe is more or less united in its stance on Russia." According to him, the current security situation is the most serious since 1945, partly due to political polarisation in the United States and China's growing global influence.

Source: seznamzpravy.cz