Germany: Two state parliaments go to the polls as AfD support surges

Germany holds elections in two federal states on Sunday — Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The vote comes just two weeks after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) scored a decisive win in Saxony-Anhalt, and pre-election polls suggest the party continues to gain ground in both states.

Berlin: CDU battles the Left Party

In the German capital, the latest polls show the ruling party of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the CDU — represented by incumbent Mayor Kai Wegner — running neck and neck with the Left Party, led by Elif Eralp. A Left Party victory would make Eralp Berlin's first mayor of Turkish descent.

According to the most recent surveys, the Left Party is polling at 21–22%, with the CDU at 20%. Two possible coalitions could emerge after the vote: one uniting the Left, the Greens and the Social Democrats (SPD), or another bringing together the CDU, the Greens and the SPD. Meanwhile, the AfD is forecast to double its previous result, reaching around 18%.

Berlin has roughly 3.9 million residents, of whom 2.5 million are eligible to vote in the city parliament election. Nearly a million residents of the German capital are foreign nationals; some of them, as EU citizens, can vote for district council representatives. For the first time, 16- and 17-year-olds are also taking part in Berlin's elections.

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: AfD versus SPD

Sparsely populated Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, in Germany's northeast, has around 1.6 million residents, of whom 1.3 million can vote. Early polling pointed confidently to an AfD win, but in the final weeks before the election the SPD, led by incumbent state premier Manuela Schwesig, surged in popularity — and the latest survey even put the Social Democrats one percentage point ahead of the far right.

That poll puts the SPD at 37% and the AfD at 36%. Merz's CDU trails far behind with just 6% — meaning it may fail to clear the five-percent threshold and could be shut out of the state parliament in Schwerin altogether.

A blow to Merz's standing

Losing the mayor's office in Berlin combined with a weak showing in Mecklenburg would deal a heavy blow to the CDU and to party chairman Friedrich Merz personally. It could intensify pressure on him to step down as chancellor.

Merz has called an emergency meeting of the CDU's executive board for Sunday evening and cancelled a planned trip to the UN General Assembly next week. The meeting will bring together the party's core leadership along with the CDU state premiers — all eight of whom signed a statement this week backing Merz as chancellor.

Polling stations in both states close at 6:00 p.m. Public broadcasters ARD and ZDF will release exit-poll projections immediately afterward, with preliminary results expected late Sunday night or in the early hours of Monday.

Source: novinky.cz