Russians Are Leaving the Country Again as Fears of a New Mobilization Wave Grow

In the run-up to and aftermath of the State Duma elections, some Russians are once again leaving the country, fearing the announcement of a new wave of mobilization. Independent Russian outlets report this, citing sources close to the Kremlin who say they have heard about the possibility of such a move, although it has not been officially confirmed.

29-year-old Alexei told the independent outlet Meduza that he left St. Petersburg for Serbia after long deliberation about emigrating. "In emigration, I can build a normal future if I put in the effort. In Russia, that opportunity doesn't exist and never will," he explained.

Why mobilization is being discussed again

As Alesya Marokhovskaya, editor-in-chief of the outlet Important Stories (Vazhnye Istorii), explained, talk of a new mobilization is resurfacing simply because Russia is running out of people. Russian troops are not advancing fast enough at the front to speak of a military victory, and according to some estimates, losses are comparable to — or even exceed — the number of new recruits.

"Recruitment increasingly resembles abductions and coercing people into signing contracts," the journalist said, describing current recruitment practices.

According to the independent Russian outlet The Insider, mobilization drills are being held in the regions, employers are being reminded of their military registration obligations, and authorities have created an electronic registry of citizens who can be legally conscripted.

The Kremlin fears a repeat of 2022

The Kremlin has so far hesitated to announce a new mobilization — largely because the first wave in 2022 triggered an unexpectedly powerful wave of protest: people took to the streets, and hundreds of thousands of Russians fled the country, not just opponents of the regime but simply people who didn't want to serve in the army.

Although the ruling United Russia party is already confident of an election victory, the authorities are keen to preserve an appearance of public unity — and mass protests, which mobilization could easily spark, would shatter that image.

According to the outlet Vyorstka, for more than two decades the Kremlin has preferred to make "unpopular decisions" precisely when society is least able to react to them — that is, right after elections or when public attention is diverted elsewhere.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Moscow is preparing to shift the front line in its favor over the winter and intensify strikes on Ukrainian cities. Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, continues to insist he has no intention of ending the war until his demands are met, including full control over Donbas — and a sharp acceleration of the army's offensive would require significantly more soldiers.

Russians withdraw savings amid confiscation fears

One woman, who left the country with her husband on the eve of the elections, told the Associated Press on condition of anonymity: "We were genuinely afraid my husband would end up in the army — right now that's a one-way ticket."

These fears are also reflected in indirect data: housing prices in the capitals of neighboring countries considered safe for Russians have risen noticeably, and citizens are actively withdrawing their savings. According to Sberbank CFO Taras Skvortsov, cited by the outlet RBC, in July alone Russians withdrew more money from bank accounts than in the previous six years combined.

The withdrawals are also linked to another fear — the possible confiscation of part of citizens' bank deposits to help fund the war. Russia's economy is under growing pressure from uncontrolled military spending, and Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries have left people standing in huge lines for gasoline.

The threat of internet shutdowns

Another source of anxiety is the possibility of restricted internet access. Authorities already introduced partial, short-term restrictions earlier this year, which sparked unexpectedly widespread discontent even among previously loyal citizens. Some experts warned this could have been merely preparation for far broader restrictions.

"They are building infrastructure designed to prevent possible protests in the future. The authorities view the ability to cut Russia and Russians off from the rest of the world as one of the tools for maintaining stability. We've seen something similar in Iran," Anton Barbashin, an analyst and co-founder of the émigré Russian journal Riddle Russia, told the outlet.

The most widely discussed possibility is a ban on VPN services, which Russians use to access information, including from outlets operating in exile. According to Marokhovskaya, demand for such sources inside Russia is only growing: more and more people are seeking out independent information, driven by mobilization fears, war losses, and fuel shortages.

Surveys also point to rising discontent in society. When the pro-government Public Opinion Foundation asked Russians in July how they were feeling, nearly 60% of respondents reported anxiety among people around them — the highest figure in four years.

Source: seznamzpravy.cz